Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/Irina
14S.IRINA 92S.INVEST Now I am confused! This is centred to the northeast of Madagascar and models are showing it hitting Madagascar as a TS and then intensifying in the Mozambique Channel to a TC before making landfall at that strength. —''12R. '' 08:55, February 25, 2012 (UTC) We could hav Irina and Jonni with us by next week but I have question which was the most active year in this basin?Allanjeffs 16:04, February 25, 2012 (UTC) : It was 1964-65 with 17 named storms. —''12R. '' 16:30, February 25, 2012 (UTC) :: No one of the three SHem seasons (AUS, SWIO, or SPAC) has had more than 20 named storms ever. The SPac's most active season was 1997-98 and the Australian Region has had a hard time getting up to 15 storms in any one season, maybe once or twice before but it's not very common. One active year for them was 2005-06. I wouldn't be very surprised if this year's SPac season beats the 2003-04 season as the least active ever in # of named storms to form there, but the Australian region and SWIO basins are about right on where they should be. This thing looks like it's gonna hit Madagascar right about now. Ryan1000 21:28, February 25, 2012 (UTC) :: Very sad to read that Giovanna death toll rise to 31 sorry for them.Allanjeffs 02:39, February 26, 2012 (UTC) Zone of Disturbed Weather 11 Now a ZODW. Should make landfall on Madagascar as a TDi and then brush Mozambique as a TC. —''12R. '' 09:15, February 26, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 11 Rapidly strengthened, however, it should make landfall in a few hours time on Madagascar as a TD. —''12R. '' 09:56, February 26, 2012 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Irina Named by Madagascar at 09z. —''12R. '' 12:43, February 26, 2012 (UTC) 33 deaths after Giovanna may sound unfortunate, but if Madagascar hadn't taken those advanced preparations and evacuations before Giovanna, it easily could have killed hundreds of people instead of only a little over 30. They got lucky with her. As for Irina, it's a weak TS as of now and i'm worried more about what Mozambique will have to deal with here than what Madagascar will. Ryan1000 14:17, February 26, 2012 (UTC) Expected to become an ITC in the Mozambique channel. Yqt1001 15:23, February 26, 2012 (UTC) So we got our "I" storm. This looks like another disaster. Andrew444TalkBlog 16:48, February 26, 2012 (UTC) So this is this is the ninth storm of the season we could get 3 more this year maxium 5 I really have fun tracking this year this basin from now on I will track cyclones all over ther world.Allanjeffs 17:17, February 26, 2012 (UTC) Overland Depression Irina It has made landfall.--Cy10-- 19:02, February 26, 2012 (UTC) Irina is expected to become a stronger storm as it heads into Mozambique by tomorrow or Tuesday, but then again, Irina might not stick around for long in Mozambique and head south into the Mozambique Channel and out to sea as GFS indicates. That would hopefully minimize the death toll and damage. They also see that other area of disturbed weather ENE of Madagascar exploding into a monster cyclone over the next few days (Joni), but they keep it out to sea. We'll see how this all pans out. Ryan1000 22:44, February 26, 2012 (UTC) :: You mean northeast of Mauritius? "keep it out to sea" - I don't think so. Ever heard of Mauritius and Reunion? —''12R. '' 22:48, February 26, 2012 (UTC) ::: Future Joni may pose a threat to the islands in the future, but the bulk of it is currently forecast to pass east of Mauritius and Reunion, not directly over it like Hollanda of 1994 or Gervaise of 1975. And they are pretty prepared for cyclones, but if future Joni stalls near the islands, it my pose a flood hazard like Gamede in 2007. Anyways with this storm, let's keep our fingers crossed. After it heads out to sea, it could come ashore again in Mozambique as a pretty sizeable cyclone, but Funso was forecast to do the same thing and it never did. Hopefully Irina won't either. Ryan1000 22:59, February 26, 2012 (UTC) Zone of Disturbed Weather 11 (Ex-Irina) Official name atm ^^ - not expected to strengthen that far anymore —''12R. '' 19:58, February 27, 2012 (UTC) Now made landfall on Madagascar again... oh look... its back in the Mozambique Channel —''12R. '' 12:25, February 28, 2012 (UTC) : It doesn't look like it will be so monstrous for Madagascar or Mozambique after all. And it's not looking very promising that we'll see any big cat 4 come out of 90S either. The SWIO is starting to slow down in activity, but March can still be a nasty SHem month. It's the equivalent of October in the Atlantic/East Pacific, and many of the most destructive and most powerful storms in SHem history have formed after this date. Larry, Monica, Percy, and Hudah are a few good examples. Ryan1000 14:31, February 28, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 11 (Ex-Irina) Expected to strengthen into a 70 kt TC —''12R. '' 02:25, February 29, 2012 (UTC) And here she comes to Burden again.Allanjeffs 12:52, February 29, 2012 (UTC) Irina won't be as bad as it was earlier anticipated, but it still bears watching. Ryan1000 14:08, February 29, 2012 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Irina (2nd time) Now back up to MTS status! —''12R. '' 16:27, February 29, 2012 (UTC) Irina looks a bit like Funso when it was in the Mozambique Channel, but I don't know if it will get as strong as Funso did. Ryan1000 00:36, March 1, 2012 (UTC) Looks like Irina would really affect Madagascar directly or the least indirectly.Allanjeffs 01:45, March 1, 2012 (UTC) Irina is currently expected to become a category 1 in the Mozambique Channel (it's almost a hurricane now), and move away from Madagascar and into Mozambique. TS 12 (Joni) is expected to head southward and become a moderate storm as it moves around Mauritius and Reunion, but the GFS forecasts another storm to come behind future Joni (Kuena), and they take that storm up to a category 4 storm sweeping through Mauritius and Reunion. That's forecast to come in the next four days, but although it's too soon to tell as of now, it's not a good thing to see. Ryan1000 14:45, March 1, 2012 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Irina Finally.—Cy10 03:04, March 2, 2012 (UTC) :You want people to die? Oh yeah, I forgot, you just don't care. —''12R. '' 12:35, March 2, 2012 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Irina (3rd time) Wind shear affecting the system, should strengthen into a TC before landfall, then move back out to sea before making landfall as an MTS in the same area. —''12R. '' 12:35, March 2, 2012 (UTC) Irina should really decide btw just because CY10 wants the system to strength doesn`t mean he want the cyclone to kill people.Allanjeffs 12:50, March 2, 2012 (UTC) : SWIO's been producing some hefty activity this year, but Irina is not going to do much either. I think it will most likely move out to sea. There is a chance it could hit Mozambique, but it will probrably miss them as it continues southwest, unless it moves more to the WSW or due west. Ryan1000 14:29, March 2, 2012 (UTC)I : I thought Irina was dead already! I'd like to see this become a TC. Andrew444TalkBlog 01:34, March 3, 2012 (UTC) : Should affect South Africa or Mozambique in the next few days I think this storm will be the first to affect South Africa since a long time.Allanjeffs 05:36, March 3, 2012 (UTC) :: It'll be moving into the area around Maputo later today. But this storm will be no Eline. I'd be surprised if it will be any worse than Dando was earlier this year. The impacts will likely (or hopefully) be minor, but it's still not typical for SWIO storms to make landfall this far south. Ryan1000 15:14, March 3, 2012 (UTC) ::: Huh, Irina's acting rather bizzare IMO. It was supposed to make landfall by now but instead it's moving southward out to sea. Maybe it won't be such a bad storm after all. Ryan1000 18:03, March 4, 2012 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Irina (2nd time) Finally back up.—Cy10 19:26, March 4, 2012 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Irina (4th time) And back down.—Cy10 13:09, March 5, 2012 (UTC) : Irina should be weakening soon.—Cy10 00:53, March 6, 2012 (UTC) :: 65 deaths from Irina!—Cy10 01:06, March 6, 2012 (UTC) :: The deadliest of the season and the first to make landfall in South Africa if it happens in along time....Allanjeffs 01:59, March 6, 2012 (UTC) :: In case you're wondering, thanks to Irina, the death toll of the 2011-12 SWIO season is the highest in half a decade (according to Wikipedia). Andrew444TalkBlog 01:28, March 7, 2012 (UTC) :: which is ther correct death toll wikipedia says Now the death toll stands at 164 and other cites say 67,89 even thouh she was a deadly cyclone and ,I think part of that was because of how Giovana leave a lot of people homeless so they could not protect themeselves when Irina pass near the Island and the othe reason was because it affect countries like South Africa that rarely see tropical cyclone activity.Allanjeffs 01:47, March 7, 2012 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Irina (3rd time) And back up...—Cy10 13:17, March 7, 2012 (UTC) God, this thing won't quit. It killed more peope than any SWIO storm since Gafilo in 2004 and it's still going on? Just die already, Irina! You've done enough. Ryan1000 23:02, March 7, 2012 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Irina (5th time) And back down...—Cy10 02:37, March 8, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 11 (Ex-Irina, 2nd time) Going down.—Cy10 13:13, March 9, 2012 (UTC) Down and out by the JTWC.Allanjeffs 01:41, March 10, 2012 (UTC) Weak Low Pressure Area 11 (Ex-Irina) Almost gone.—Cy10 15:24, March 10, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of Irina Gone.—Cy10 19:50, March 10, 2012 (UTC)